A BREIF HISTORY OF TIME by Stephen Hawking

I finally figured out what physicists mean by "determinism".

Hawking says that predictability is required for "scientific determinism" (start of chapter 4). He defines "scientific determinism" as meaning that something that will happen in the future can be predicted.
Interestingly, he admits later, that even the uncertainty principle does not rule-out another kind of determinism, and says that quantum mechanics may very well allow the universe to be deterministic (Conclusions). He says:

It is the type of determinism that only implies a unique, mechanical course for the universe, that I ascribe to. Predictability is out of the question and irrelevant. The human brain can not predict the future and insted creates an illusion of choice and free will. This is a survival trick that is based on 4 billion years of natural selection and serves people well. We can recognize the fact of determinism, but still be left to behave as if we have free will. I recommend Dan Dennett's Elbow Room (see a review by Danny Yee) as the best available discussion of free will. (I have additional information about Dennett and Determinism scattered around here and there.) I think the intrusion of physicists into the game of publishing books about the nature of consciousness is mainly due to the fact that physicists (like all of us) feel like they have free will but at the same time they see their models of the universe painting a picture of determinism. In this century various physicists have constructed an endless stream of "escapes from determinism" and now they want to show how to save consciousness from the advancing progress in reducing mind to brain.

Hawking's discussion of the Anthropic Principle and Arrows of Time (particularly the Psychological Arrow of Time) is very good (Chapter 9). Unfortunately, he is so ignorant of brain physiology that he has to describe the Psychological Arrow of Time in terms of computer memory! His argument easily applies to human brains. I should send him a copy of Johnny Neumann's book (The Computer and the Brain) and Crick's (The Astonishing Hypothesis) to show him how some other physicists have been able to deal with the brain, but I'd hate to risk creating another Penrose.

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