Last Update: 11/02
Solo Races
For this study, I have arbitrarily defined a game as one ending in a "solo race" if the second place finisher ends up with 10 centers or more. A more comprehensive description would be that this is a study on how countries perform when it and another power have been dealt winning hands. Out of the 95 solos recorded on Dip2000, 45 have ended in such a way. Here is the compilation table.
| % Won | Wins | Losses | Total Races | % Solo by Race | |
| Austria | 80 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 73 |
| England | 43 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 60 |
| France | 29 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 42 |
| Germany | 91 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 59 |
| Italy | 55 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 50 |
| Russia | 43 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| Turkey | 25 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 43 |
Austria and Germany are by far the two best when it comes to solo races. This is most likely because of their central location and thus their ability to disperse troops during the end game. The final centers for a powerful German may just be next door in Austria while for the Sultan his final few centers will probably be far from the homeland. Italy, the third 'central power' is the only other country to have a winning record at 55%.
The losses statistic is a pretty sad one. Sad because it is when a country has reached more than 10 centers and somehow allows another to escape with a solo victory (all that work for nothing...). Only once has Germany had more than 10 centers and see another country solo, and for Austria that has only happened twice. France, however, has seen this happen 12 times, meaning that 12 times, a French ruler has, over the course of months in real-time, led his country to greatness only to see it fail when it counted the most. So unless the country is under the rule of a brilliant tactician it would be in France's or Turkey's best interest to seek a quick draw if another powerful country was on the board. However, a Germany should mostly seek to end the game fighting for the solo, as should an Austria. Statistically speaking, that is. Of course, there are many other factors when choosing between settling for a draw and trying to win.
The last statistic on the above table is % Solo By Race, which divides the number of solos each country has won during a 'solo race' by the total number of solos that country has. Russia's percentage is a meager 12%, most likely meaning that Russia is a country that solos when it can keep the other countries in confusion and not allow another country to gain too much power. On the other hand, the fact that 73% of Austrian solos come from a solo race means that Austria benefits when there is another dominant power on the board and they duke it out.
This next table keeps track of how countries do against one another in solo races. It will be interesting to see how this table fills up. The first number corresponds to the country on the left, while the second refers to the country above. The total is just repeated from above.
| Austria | England | France | Germany | Italy | Russia | Turkey | Total | |
| Austria | ******** | 4-0 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-2 |
| England | 0-4 | ******** | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 6-8 |
| France | 0-3 | 1-1 | ******** | 0-3 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5-12 |
| Germany | 1-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | ******** | 0-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 10-1 |
| Italy | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 1-0 | ******** | 0-1 | 1-0 | 6-5 |
| Russia | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 | ******** | 0-0 | 3-4 |
| Turkey | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | ******** | 3-9 |
This table is still full of holes but there are a few notable streaks. Austria has won 4 of 4 solo races against England, as has Germany against Turkey. Austria and Germany have both won 3 of 3 on France. France and Turkey are in a dead heat with 2 wins apiece.
So, if you are in a game where you and another country are both dominant you can either look at the above table and play the odds or disregard the statistics by attacking anyways. It's always more fun to see a solo race.
18-16
Perhaps the saddest loss and most satisfying victory is when a country beats out the second place finisher in an 18 to 16 center win. There have been two games that have ended up in such a way, both being regular games. Maverick, where Austria beat out England, and the GM Game, where Russia beat out Italy.
John Nham